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Τρίτη 7 Σεπτεμβρίου 2010

Value Betting

Anyone who plays poker regularly has heard the term "Value Bet" used when discussing a hand.
For those of you who haven't, a simple definition would be making a bet (usually on the river) when you are confident that you will be called by a lesser hand. The term is commonly used when you are betting a mediocre hand on the end, but one that you feel is best.

Before I move forward I must advise that this is not just another "trick" to add to your arsenal.
Many weaker players tend to overuse certain concepts once they learn about them and it ends up costing them money instead of making it for them. A good example of this is check-raising a button bettor with middle pair, a good play against a habitual position bettor but a terrible one against someone who would only bet with top pair or better.
My advice is to use the information in this article to your benefit, but make sure you're not overusing the concept. After all, the reason value bets are profitable is because they will sometimes allow you to gain an extra bet on the river with a hand you would normally check.
So how exactly does one know when he is in a spot where he should make a bet for value? It's quite simple actually, and requires only simple hand reading skills in combination with a little knowledge of your opponent. Let's take a look at a couple sample hands and the thinking behind them:
1) I am sitting in a six handed $2/$4 limit game on PokerStars. I'm dealt Q J on the button and the three players in front of me fold. The game is pretty tight and I've been raising with a lot more hands than usual since my image is good and people are giving up a lot of pots to me.
The player in the small blind tends to overplay medium hands such as ATo as well as any suited ace, and I've seen him put in a cap preflop with AQo and KQs against a player who was a complete rock. He will however fold pretty frequently if he doesn't have something he likes.
The big blind is very weak and will usually fold to a raise or call and then check/fold the flop.
Now I know I advised to just fold QJo in most situations in my article on Hand Standards, but this is a special case. All signs point towards a raise in this spot since I will likely win the pot without having to make a hand and I do have two high cards with which to make top pair if someone does call my raise.
I put in the raise, and the small blind immediately makes it 3 bets to go. The big blind folds and while I really don't like my hand anymore, I obviously have to take a flop.
The Flop : K Q 7 There is $14 in the pot.
The small blind bets into me.
This isn't a flop that I'm happy with, though I did get a piece of it with middle pair. The flop is extremely dangerous with the King as well as the three-flush that I have no draw to. If this were a multiway pot, anything but a fold would certainly be considered suicide.
This situation is quite different as we are heads up, and I'm getting 8 to 1 to call.
The first thing I decide is that I cannot just fold or I am giving up way too much. There are simply too many bets in the pot to throw in the towel just yet. With my aggressive opponent in the SB and his tendency to reraise with A4s and other weak hands, I could actually have the best hand here, and he may also check the turn if a scary card comes.
With all of that in mind, should I call or raise?
I don't think I gain much by raising here since my opponent is unlikely to respect a raise on the small street and also could put me in a very bad spot by making it three bets to go.
The only reason I'd ever want to raise here would be to gain information about where I was at in the hand. Unfortunately, the board is such that he may reraise with JJ with the Jd or similar hands which I am currently beating. Since he may raise again with a draw, raising doesn't really help me out much since I still have no clue where I'm at. There is also the small possibility that my raise my win the pot immediately, but with both a K and Q on the flop, it is unlikely to succeed against a 3bettor.
I decide to just call and see what comes on the turn.
The Turn : K There is $18 in the pot.
The small blind bets.
This was an excellent Turn card since it didn't put another diamond on the board, and also couldn't have beaten me if I was ahead on the flop. (It is also less likely that my opponent has a King since another is on the board.)
While my opponent could very easily have trips, I still don't know where I stand except that my hand has just gotten stronger. I briefly consider raising to try for a free showdown, but realize that it's a bad idea for a couple of reasons. First, he will certainly reraise me with trip Kings, and probably also AQ making me either fold or put more money in while drawing dead or close to it. Second, he is tricky enough to possibly reraise the turn with just the nut flush draw and I'd have to lay my hand down. Third, even if I am ahead, if he is on a diamond flush draw and it gets there on the river, he will most likely bet into me again at which point I will have to call simply because the pot is huge. Hopefully you can see why raising the turn is a bad idea here.
I opt to just call again.
The River : 2 There is $26 in the pot.
The small blind checks quickly.
I really like my hand now since this player is not the type that would try to check-raise with trips on the end here, and he would certainly bet again with AQ if he had it. I also believe he would bet a worse Queen into me, so when he checked I put him on a smaller pair than the board like JJ, TT, 99 probably with a diamond since he bet the flop and turn. I also believe that he will call with any pair he has, and maybe even AJ high if he was that aggressive with it, so this is an excellent spot to put in a value bet on the river.
I bet, he calls, and my hand is good.
I checked the hand history and he actually had A T! It's amazing how poorly some people play after the flop.
Notice how I really hated my hand preflop and on the flop, but ended up being the one betting on the river in this hand. It's important to be thinking throughout the hand and trying to deduce what your opponent may have.
Most people would be content to simply check the river here and hope that their hand was good on such a dangerous board. My observation of this player and thinking throughout the hand ended up earning me an additional big bet here as he called with ace high.
2) This time I'm in a $3/$6 shorthanded game on PokerStars and I'm dealt Q Q in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind who is a very passive player. From what I've seen, he will bet out with top pair and then immediately slow down after being raised, and rarely raise the turn or river without the goods.
The passive small blind limps in and I raise.
It's worth noting also that the blinds on PokerStars 3/6 games are $1 and $3, making it very unprofitable to come in from the small with some of the lesser starting hands. My opponent probably doesn't take this into account though, and could be limping with virtually any two.
The Flop : K Q T There is $12 in the pot.
My opponent immediately bets into me.
This is one heck of an action flop, but clearly I don't mind much since I have middle set which is a very big hand.
Knowing my opponent's tendencies, I have a few ways I can play this hand. I could raise now and get him to call me down, or I could just call and then raise the turn and hope he had enough hand to call.
The deciding factor was that I'd seen him fold to turn raises in previous hands, but never to a flop raise if he held any pair.
So, I decided to just get the raise in on the flop and convince him to call me down with whatever he held. The reason this is right is because he wouldn't bet into me with a naked Jack and would need at least KJ, JT or two pair to bet out. Another piece of information that encourages the flop raise is that if he had AJ or J9 and had flopped the straight, he would reraise me immediately on the flop rather than slowplaying to the expensive street and it would then cost me less to draw to my full house. If I wait till the turn to raise, I simply cost myself more money if he has flopped the straight and reraises me.
I raise the flop and he just calls. This tells me that my hand is way good at this point and he has not flopped the straight but is probably drawing to it while also having a pair.
The Turn : J There is $18 in the pot.
The Jack on the turn is an interesting card. First, it completes the rainbow meaning that no flush draws are possible. It also puts four parts to a straight on the board which will usually freeze the action.
The small blind checks.
My read on this guy was that if he had just turned the straight, he would bet into me with it rather than going for a checkraise. He was not the type to get tricky, but would just bet whenever he had a strong hand. Because he checked here I was pretty sure that my hand was still good and that he probably turned two pair and would just call down with it.
Notice here how my read induces more profit on this hand than normal. The standard play here with a set would be to check behind on the turn and then just call the river so that you avoid a tough situation on the turn if you do get check-raised. You're giving yourself a free card to a full house and your hand could also still be good (but unlikely to be drawn out on), so you still call the river.
Since I knew this guy wouldn't go for a check-raise though, I went ahead and bet and he called.
The River : 4 There is $30 in the pot.
Again, I still felt my hand was good here, so I bet for value, he called, and I checked the hand history to see that he had KJ.
In this hand I ended up making an additional two big bets simply by reading my opponent's tendencies and betting a medium hand for value on a very dangerous board.
The point I want to make here is that you shouldn't be content to just check down your hand on the river if the betting action has told you that it should be good. Even on a dangerous board like KQJT I was able to value bet my three Queens.
Clearly you shouldn't get extreme here and start betting bottom pair for value, but paying attention is very important and will earn you extra money if you're observant enough to read your opponents and their tendencies.


Δευτέρα 6 Σεπτεμβρίου 2010

Οptimal bluff strategy

Bluffing and bluff strategy is one of the hardest but most fundamental parts of poker. Without a doubt, if you do not bluff in poker, there is no way you can be a successful poker player. That being said, bluffing is no small task, as it requires good poker sense, timing and guts to pull it off. It can be frightening, scary and embarrassing when you are caught, but equally exciting and rewarding when you get away with it.


Bluffing in Limit Texas Hold'em

In most Texas Hold'em games played around the casinos, structured (limit poker) is the most common type of poker played. Unlike no limit, where you can shove your stack all-in and put a man to his money, in limit games, your bluffs will only be limited to a single bet or raise more often than not. Because of this limited betting, bluffing randomly can get you in trouble, as your opponents will often be willing to call down a single extra bet (especially in low limit games). As cool as it might sound to tell yourself that you're going to bluff everyone out of the next hand no matter what, it's not going to work the majority of the time. Why? Because bluffing, is an art form.

Position - The Weapon of Choice for Bluffing

If you have studied texas hold'em or poker in general, you'll know that position relative to the button is a big factor in the game. If you don't know what position is, I highly recommend you read the link above or our texas hold'em guide as a primer. Position is a topic too important a topic to ignore, as it goes hand in hand with bluffing and aggression. Thus, adding a bluffing game on top of your position game is absolutely critical.
Continuing, position is important because bluffing will usually take place when you are close to the button or last to act. Why? Because you are in the advantageous situation to see all the action before the action is on you.
Example: You are on the button in a 3/6 game. There are three players on the flop, including yourself. The flop comes [ A 9 2 ]. The first player checks, then the second player checks as well. Being last to act, you decide that since your opponents checked before you, you might be able to scoop up the pot. You bet $3 and happily see that both your opponents fold and you take down the pot.
This is a classic example of using your position to take down a pot. Because you were able to see your opponents act before you, this gave you enough information so that you decided to bluff and win this pot. So, if the action is checked to you, depending on how many players are in the pot and how loose the game is, you will often win the hand outright then and there without any confrontation.

Bluff EV - Can Math Solve the Bluffing Equation?

Let's use an example where you are playing in a $3/6 limit hold'em game with four callers on the flop: small and big blind, one limper and yourself. That makes it a $12 pot. The blinds and limper check to you. Should you try and steal this pot? Let's do the math.
If you bet out, it involves risking a small bet of $3 to try and bluff the pot. If you win, you will be up $12. This means the pot is laying you 12:3 odds, or 4:1 odds. If you aren't familiar with odds, please visit our page on how to calculate poker odds. Because the pot is giving 4:1 odds, this means that you must win this pot 1 out of 5 times in order to break even with your bet - or 20% of the time.
To figure out whether or not it will be profitable to bluff in your position, you combine this little bit of math against your own poker skills and intuition to ask yourself this: If I bluff now, will I win this pot more than 20% of the time? If the answer is yes, then you want to bet at this pot! If the answer is no, then it'll be a losing long-term proposition for you. This is why careful observation and taking notes of your opponents is crucial. Knowing when a play is profitable and when it isn't, is how you make money with bluffs.

The Semi-Failed Bluff - To Continue or Not?

So, lets say 1 out of 5 times you do take the pot down right then, meaning that it's a break even play. Let's say that on the times that you don't win immediately, your opponents simply call and you're looking at a turn card. Say that everyone still in the hand checks to you - should you bet again? Well, it certainly depends now doesn't it!
The hardest part about bluffing is knowing when to really dial up the aggression and when to slam your foot on the brakes. Trying to push over an opponent with a monster hand or standing down to an opponent with a weak hand are the two worst mistakes to make while bluffing, because they'll cost you the most money. This is why you want to try and analyze exactly what your opponents may be holding that they're still in the hand with you.
Look at what is on the board and try to figure out what hand your opponents would call you with. Are they loose enough to call that inside straight draw or call with bottom pair? Are they predictable players that only call top pair? But most important, are they weak enough to call the flop and fold the turn? The mistake that most aggressive players make is they don't try to understand their opponents; they just want to bully them. Your decision to continue should be a smart one: keep bullying if you have a good chance, but otherwise, give up.

The Actual Failed Bluff

Ok. There was only one opponent left on the river. You were sure they were going to fold, so you bet it out. They called with bottom pair and you have King high. You're sick to your stomach and embarrassed to boot. The first thing that goes through your head at this moment is: how on Earth did they call that?
Reality check: Don't do the stupid thing and try to convince yourself that your opponent made a mistake. While your opponent might have made a bad call, it was a worse move for you to try to bluff out a calling station! It's a rule of thumb that you can't push out a calling station, because they simply don't know any better.

Practice Makes Perfect!

While this article isn't an entire primer on all the different angles on bluffing, the best lesson you can have on how to properly bluff is to simply go out and try it yourself. Everyone has to learn the hard way eventually, no matter how much you read on strategies. The key is to learn from your mistakes on how aggressive you can be and then tone it down to match the style of the table. Most important though, is to actually try and bluff. Being nervous or scared is a very natural thing and getting over that emotional block is an important part of controlling your nerves and mindset to make good plays. Keep at it and you'll be doing well in no time!

Τρίτη 24 Αυγούστου 2010

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Poker Odds Calculation for Texas Hold'em

Learning how to properly count your outs and calculate poker odds is a fundamental requirement of Texas Hold'em. While the math used to calculate odds might sound scary and over the head of a new player, it really isn't as hard as it looks. In fact, most of the time, you only need to know elementary arithmetic to figure out your odds.

Best Poker Rooms to Practice Your Poker Odds Skills

The following poker rooms are Tight Poker's "highest recommended" rooms for practicing poker odds calculation. PokerStars has produced World Champions Chris Moneymaker, Joe Hachem, Greg Raymer and Peter Eastgate -- not to mention many other great poker players. Full Tilt Poker is home to the biggest collection of the world's best online poker players. Some of those poker players used this poker odds page to hone their mathematical skills off the table before perfecting their games on the table. Try out your own skills today.












































Why are Odds Important in Poker

Why are poker odds so important anyhow? Knowing odds is important because it gives you an idea when you are in a good or bad situation. To illustrate:
Let's say you and a friend are flipping a quarter and he gives you 1:1 odds that the next flip will land on heads. You already know that it will land on heads 50% of the time, and it'll land on tails the rest of the time. In this case, he's giving you an even bet, because nobody has a statistical advantage.
Instead, let's say your friend just won $500 playing poker online and is on a lucky streak. He offers you 2:1 odds that the next coin flip will be heads. Would you take this bet? Hopefully you would, because the chances of heads or tails coming up are still 1:1, while he's paying you at the 2:1 rate. Your friend is hoping to ride his luck a little longer, but if he gambles with you long enough, he'll be losing his shirt with these kinds of odds.
The above example is a simplified version of what goes on in Texas Hold'em all the time. This is summed up in this short principle:
In poker, there are two types of players. The first group are players who take bad odds in hopes of getting lucky. The second group are players who cash in on the good odds that are left by the first group.

Hand Odds and Poker Odds

Hand odds are your chances of making a hand in Texas Hold'em poker. For example: if you hold two hearts and there are two hearts on the flop, your hand odds for making a flush are about 2 to 1. This means that for approximately every 3 times you play this hand, you can expect to hit your flush one of those times. If your hand odds were 3 to 1, then you would expect to hit your hand 1 out of every 4 times.

Odds are given below for hitting a draw by the river with a given number of outs after the flop and turn, and examples of draws with specified numbers of outs are given.
Example: if you hold [22] and the flop does not contain a [2], the odds of hitting a [2] on the turn is 22:1 (4%). If the turn is also not a [2], the odds of hitting it on the river are again 22:1 (4%). However, the combined odds of hitting a [2] on the turn or river is 12:1 (8%). For mathematical reasons, only use combined odds (two card odds) when you are in a possible all-in situation.
Outs One Card % Two Card % One
Card
Odds
Two
Card
Odds
Draw Type
1 2% 4% 46 23 Backdoor Straight or Flush (Requires two cards)
2 4% 8% 22 12 Pocket Pair to Set
3 7% 13% 14 7 One Overcard
4 9% 17% 10 5 Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House
5 11% 20% 8 4 One Pair to Two Pair or Set
6 13% 24% 6.7 3.2 No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards
7 15% 28% 5.6 2.6 Set to Full House or Quads
8 17% 32% 4.7 2.2 Open Straight
9 19% 35% 4.1 1.9 Flush
10 22% 38% 3.6 1.6 Inside Straight & Two Overcards
11 24% 42% 3.2 1.4 Open Straight & One Overcard
12 26% 45% 2.8 1.2 Flush & Inside Straight / Flush & One Overcard
13 28% 48% 2.5 1.1
14 30% 51% 2.3 0.95
15 33% 54% 2.1 0.85 Flush & Open Straight / Flush & Two Overcards
16 34% 57% 1.9 0.75
17 37% 60% 1.7 0.66

Examples of drawing hands after the flop

Draw Hand Flop Specific Outs # Outs
Pocket Pair to Set [4 4] [6 7 T] 4, 4 2
One Overcard [A 4] [6 2 J] A, A, A 3
Inside Straight [6 7] [5 9 A] 8, 8, 8, 8 4
Two Pair to Full House [A J] [5 A J] A, A, J, J 4
One Pair to Two Pair or Set [J Q] [J 3 4] J, J, Q, Q, Q 5
No Pair to Pair [3 6] [8 J A] 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6 6
Two Overcards to Over Pair [A K] [3 2 8] A, A, A, K, K, K 6
Set to Full House or Quads [5 5] [5 Q 2] 5 Q, Q, Q, 2, 2, 2 7
Open Straight [9 T] [3 8 J] Any 7, Any Q 8
Flush [A K] [3 5 7] Any heart (2 to Q) 9
Inside Straight & Two Overcards [A K] [Q J 6] Any Ten, A, A A, K, K, K 10
Flush & Inside Straight [K J] [A 2 T] Any Q, Any club 12
Flush and Open Straight [J T] [9 Q 3] Any heart;, 8, 8, 8, K, K, K 15
Keyword Definitions
  • Backdoor: A straight or flush draw where you need two cards to help your hand out.
    You have [A K]. Flop shows [T 2 5]. You need both a [J] and [Q] for a straight.
  • Overcard Draw: When you have a card above the flop.
    You have [A 3]. Flop shows [K 5 2]. You need a [A] overcard to make top pair. 3 total outs.
  • Inside Straight Draw (aka 'Gutshot'): When you have one way to complete a straight.
    You have [J T]. Flop shows [A K 5]. You need a [Q] to complete your straight. 4 total outs.
  • Open Straight Draw: When you have two ways to complete a straight.
    You have [5 6]. Flop shows [7 8 A]. You need a [4] or [9] to complete your straight. 8 total outs.
  • Flush Draw: Having two cards to a suit with two suits already on the flop.
    You have [A K]. Flop shows [7 8 J]. You need any heart to make a flush. 9 total outs.
To calculate your hand odds, you first need to know how many outs your hand has. An out is defined as a card in the deck that helps you make your hand. If you hold [A K] and there are two spades on the flop, there are 9 more spades in the deck (since there are 13 cards of each suit). This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush - but not necessarily the best hand! Usually you want your outs to count toward a nut (best hand) draw, but this is not always possible.
The quick amongst you might be wondering "But what if someone else is holding a spade, doesn't that decrease my number of outs?". The answer is yes (and no!). If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade, then you will have to count that against your total number of outs. However, in most situations you do not know what your opponents hold, so you can only calculate odds with the knowledge that is available to you. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. So, in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table - in that case, there are 9 spades left in the deck.
When calculating outs, it's also important not to overcount your odds. An example would be a flush draw in addition to an open straight draw.
Example: You hold [J T] and the board shows [8 Q K]. A Nine or Ace gives you a straight (8 outs), while any diamond gives you the flush (9 outs). However, there is an [A] and a [9], so you don't want to count these twice toward your straight draw and flush draw. The true number of outs is actually 15 (8 outs + 9 outs - 2 outs) instead of 17 (8 outs + 9 outs).
In addition to this, sometimes an out for you isn't really a true out. Let's say that you are chasing an open ended straight draw with two of one suit on the table. In this situation, you would normally have 8 total outs to hit your straight, but 2 of those outs will result in three to a suit on the table. This makes a possible flush for your opponents. As a result, you really only have 6 outs for a nut straight draw. Another more complex situation follows:
Example:You hold [J 8]o (off-suit, or not of the same suit) and the flop comes [9 T J] rainbow (all of different suits). To make a straight, you need a [Q] or [7] to drop, giving you 4 outs each or a total of 8 outs. But, you have to look at what will happen if a [Q] drops, because the board will then show [9 T J Q]. This means that anyone holding a [K] will have made a King-high straight, while you hold the second-best Queen-high straight.
So, the only card that can really help you is the [7], which gives you 4 outs, or the equivalent of a gut-shot draw. While it's true that someone might not be holding the [K] (especially in a short or heads-up game), in a big game, it's a very scary position to be in.

How to calculate hand odds (the longer way):

Once you know how to correctly count the number of outs you have for a hand, you can use that to calculate what percentage of the time you will hit your hand by the river. Probability can be calculated easily for a single event, like the flipping of the River card from the Turn. This would simply be: for two cards however, like from the Flop to the River, it's a bit more tricky. This is calculated by figuring out the probability of your cards not hitting twice in a row and subtracting that from 100%. This can be calculated as shown below:
Turn and River Probability Calculation
The number 47 represents the remaining cards left in the deck after the flop (52 total cards, minus 2 in our hand and 3 on the flop = 47 remaining cards). Even though there might not technically be 47 cards remaining, we do calculations assuming we are the only players in the game. To illustrate, here is a two-overcard draw, which has 3 outs for each overcard, giving a total of 6 outs for a top-pair draw:

However, most of the time we want to see this in hand odds, which will be explained after you read about pot odds. To change a percentage to odds, the formula is:
Thus, to change the 24% draw into odds that we can use, we do the following:

How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way):

Now that you've learned the proper way of calculating hand odds in Texas Hold'em, there is a shortcut that makes it much easier to calculate odds:
After you find the number of outs you have, multiply by 4 and you will get a close estimate to the percentage of hitting that hand from the Flop. Multiply by 2 instead to get a percentage estimate from the Turn. You can see these figures for yourself below:

Sample Outs and Percentages from Above Chart

4 9% 17% 10 5 Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House
5 11% 20% 8 4 One Pair to Two Pair or Set
6 13% 24% 6.7 3.2 No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards
7 15% 28% 5.6 2.6 Set to Full House or Quads
As you can see, this is a much easier method of finding your percentage odds. But what about ratio odds? This is still done using this formula:
However, we can rephrase this equation so that your brain might process it a bit more easily:
Using 100 divided by the whole percentage number, such as 24%, we can easily see that 100/24 isequal to about 4. We minus 1 from that and get a rough estimate of our odds at about 3:1. Let's try this all the way through with an example:
You hold: A J
Flop is: 5 T K
Total Outs: 4 Queens (Inside Straight) + 3 Aces (Overcard) - Q or A = 5 Outs
Percentage for Draw = 5 Outs × 4 = 20%
Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
     = 5 - 1
     = 4:1
Again, 4:1 odds means that can expect to make your draw 1 out of every 5 times. If the 1 out of 5 doesn't make a ton of sense to you, think about the 1:1 odds of flipping heads or tails on a coin. You'll flip heads 50% of the time, so 1 out of every 2 times it'll come up heads.

Pot Odds and Poker Odds:

Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds, you're probably wondering "what am I going to need it for?" That's a good question - this is where pot odds come into play.
Pot odds are simply the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much money it costs to call. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, your pot odds are 100:10, or 10:1. If there is $50 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are.

Pot odds ratios are a very useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. The thinking goes along the lines of: if you play 11 times, it'll cost you $110, but when you win once, you will get $110 ($100 + your $10 call).
The usefulness of hand odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two. As we now know, in a flush draw, your hand odds for making your flush are 1.9 to 1. Let's say you're in a hand with a nut flush draw and it's $5 to you on the flop to call. Do you call? Your answer should be: "What are my pot odds?"
If there is $15 in the pot plus a $5 bet from an opponent, then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds. This means that, in order to break even, you must win 1 out of every 5 times. However, with your flush draw, your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even, but you're making a nice profit on this in the long run. Let's calculate the profit margin on this by theoretically playing this hand 100 times from the flop, which is then checked to the river.
Net Cost to Play = 100 hands * $5 to call = -$500
Pot Value = $15 + $5 bet + $5 call

Odds to Win = 1.9:1 or 35% (From the flop)
Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (35%) = 35 wins

Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value)
          = -$500 + (35 * $25)
          = -$500 + $875
          = $375 Profit
As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you'll be making moneyin the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is:
If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds, then you are making a profit in the long run.
Even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times - which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds - it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Other times, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just raised a large amount so that your pot odds are 1:1, then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run. In this situation, a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break-even.
Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds and pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future - just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of profitably playing drawing hands requires that your pot odds are greater than your hand odds.

Poker Odds from the Flop to Turn and Turn to River

An important note I have to make is that many players who understand Hold'em odds tend to forget is that much of the theoretical odds calculations from the flop to the river assume there is no betting on the turn. So while it's true that for a flush draw, the odds are 1.9 to 1 that the flush will complete, you can only call a 1.9 to 1 pot on the flop if your opponent will let you see both the turn and river cards for one call. Unfortunately, most of the time, this will not be the case, so you should not calculate pot odds from the flop to the river and instead calculate them one card at a time.
To calculate your odds one card at a time, simply use the same odds that you have going from the turn to the river. So for example, your odds of hitting a flush from the turn to river is 4 to 1, which means your odds of hitting a flush from the flop to the turn is 4 to 1 as well.
To help illustrate even further, we will use the flush calculation example that shows an often-used (but incorrect) way of thinking
Example of Incorrect Pot Odds Math
You Hold: Flush Draw
Flop: $10 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 2 to 1 odds)

Turn: $30 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands
Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $10 Turn Call) = $2,000
Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $50 Pot = $1,750

Total Net = $1,750 (Won) - $2,000 (Cost)
           = -$250 Profit
           = -$2.5/Hand

Example of Correct Pot Odds Math
You Hold: Flush Draw
Flop: $30 Pot + $10 Bet
You Call: $10 (getting 4 to 1 odds)

Turn: $50 Pot + $16 Bet
You Call: $16 (getting about 4 to 1 odds)

Long-Term Results Over 100 Hands
Cost to Play = 100 Hands * ($10 Flop Call + $16 Turn Call) = $2,600
Total Won = 100 Hands * 35% Chance to Win * $82 Pot = $2,870

Total Net = $2,870 (Won) - $2,600 (Cost)
          = $270 Profit
          = $2.7/Hand
As you can see from these example calculations, calling a flush draw with 2 to 1 pot odds on the flop can lead to a long term loss, if there is additional betting past the flop. Most of the time, however, there is a concept called Implied Value (which we'll get to next) that is able to help flush draws and open-ended straight draws still remain profitable even with seemingly 'bad' odds. The draws that you want to worry about the most are your long shot draws: overcards, gut shots and two-outers (hoping to make a set with your pocket pair). If you draw these hands using incorrect odds (such as flop to river odds), you will be severely punished in the long run.

Implied Value

Implied Value is a pretty cool concept that takes into account future betting. Like the above section, where you have to worry about your opponent betting on the turn, implied value is most often used to anticipate your opponent calling on the river. So for example, let's say that you have yet another flush draw and are being offered a 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. Knowing that you need 4 to 1 pot odds to make this a profitable call, you decide to fold.
Aha, but wait! Here is where implied value comes into play. So, even though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn, you can likely anticipate your opponent calling you on the river if you do hit your flush draw. This means that even though you're only getting 3 to 1 pot odds, since you anticipate your opponent calling a bet on the river, you are anticipating 4 to 1 pot odds - so you are able to make this call on the turn.
So in the most practical standpoint, implied value usually means that you can subtract one bet from your drawing odds on the turn, as it anticipates your opponents calling at least one bet. In some more advanced areas, you can use implied odds as a means of making some draws that might not be profitable a majority of the time, but stand to make big payouts when they do hit. Some examples of this would be having a tight image and drawing to a gut shot against another tight player. Even though this is a horribly bad play (and hopefully you don't have to pay much for it), it can possibly be a positive play if you know your opponent will pay you off if you hit your draw - because he won't believe you played a gut shot draw. For many reasons, I do not recommend fancy implied odds plays like these, but mentioned it more so that you can recognize some players who pull these 'tricky' plays on you as well.

Conclusion - Poker Odds

Knowing how to figure out your odds in Texas Hold'em is one of the most fundamental points in becoming a solid poker player. If this poker odds page was a bit difficult to understand, don't worry. Keep playing, bookmark this page and come back when you need another brush-up on how to properly apply odds. It takes a while to learn how to calculate them properly and to memorize them as well. Practice makes perfect, so be sure to check out our Party Poker Bonus Codes to get an extrabonus when you are first starting out. You can also view our full Party Poker Review.
As a little 'poker cheat', you can also download poker backgrounds that can help assist you, should you often forget your odds and outs. Good luck at the poker tables!

Πέμπτη 12 Αυγούστου 2010

Expected Value

Definition of Expectation / Expected Value: The amount you can expect to gain or lose on average for a certain act. Expectation can be applied to a bet, a hand, an hourly rate, a full career, etc. Expected Value is jargonized as "EV".#


No matter how much some people want to pretend otherwise, all poker decisions are mathematical. When playing for money, all poker situations and decisions have a value. Sometimes this value will be absolutely known. For example, your sole opponent bets all-in into you when you hold the nut hand. You will precisely know what your expectation of calling is simply by counting the pot. Of course, such obvious situations are rare. More often you have think in terms of generalities, like what your expectation is if you are dealt AA on the dealer button while playing Holdem, or more specific estimation, like when you are dealt AA on the button playing $20/40 and John Smith raises first to act and everyone else folds to you and you have two tight players in the blinds behind you.



In most situations we won't know the exact math of each of the decisions facing us. The math still exists though. It's always there. We can influence it, change it to be more (or less) in our favor, but it never goes away. Successful poker results from having the math on our side. The ironic thing is a player doesn't even need to know the math is on his side for this to be true. This is why looking at the results of individual hands is seldom helpful in determining proper play. In poker, it is very easy to do the right action for the wrong reasons. But just because it was "right" doesn't mean it was really "right".

The action that is really correct is the one that has the best expectation. If you reraise two players with 72 offsuit before the flop, and you happen to win a huge pot from A2 and KK when the flop comes 227, you still did the wrong thing. You did not have the best of it. Reraising with 72 has a negative expectation. It has a negative value. Winning poker is playing when the positives are on your side.

Expectation isn't at all constant though. Your expectation for when you have KK first to act in Holdem in New Jersey is different than mine in California. They may be close, but they are still different. The fine lines of expectation are the tactical "stuff" of poker. If you wanted to, when playing raked-game Holdem you could guarantee to play with a positive expectation every hand outside the blinds merely by only playing AA when you get it. Of course, this would be silly. You would lose your shirt. Other situations have positive expectations too, so not playing those hands is poor poker. Our challenge as players is to find the situations of positive expectation, expand that group of situations, and minimize our situations of negative expectation.

Some things have a no-brainer positive expectation -- like fishing through your pants pockets before doing the laundry. Every human will find some amount of money this way over the course of his or her lifetime, but the amount will be different for everyone due to a lot of factors, including level of forgetfulness and level of wealth. Here we have a situation of pure positive expectation for everyone, but one that is still variable.

In poker, it is very common that poor play can turn a positive expectation situation into a negative one. Even more interesting, poor play can lead to expectations that have no apparent rational reason to occur.

One online cardroom posted on their website the actual statistical results by starting hand from six million Holdem hands dealt at their cardroom. Remember, results don't tell the whole story, but some things are clear from the data. The hand that performed the worst, losing .17 big bets each time it was dealt, was 32 suited. In comparison, 32 offsuit lost .15 per instance. A2 offsuit lost .16 per instance, also more than 32 offsuit!

While no one will argue that 32 offsuit is somehow a "better" hand than 32 suited, what we can easily see is that people play the "better" hand worse -- and thus make the expectation of the better hand to be worse than the worse hand.

While that sounds like a bit of circular gibberish, it's a crucial poker concept to grasp. How you play affects the expectation of your hands. If you are smart enough to commonly fold 32 offsuit, but for some reason always raise and reraise with 32 suited, you are going to have a better expectation with the offsuit hand than the suited one. They will both be negative, but money not lost spends as well as money won. Making a negative expectation situation less of a negative expectation situation is a positive expectation situation unto itself.

Τα ακριβότερα τραπέζια πόκερ

Όλοι όσοι έχετε παρακολουθήσει έστω και λίγο πόκερ στην τηλεόραση ή στο ίντερνετ, έχετε δει αστέρες του πόκερ να παίζουν σε τουρνουά με μεγάλα χρηματικά έπαθλα. Τα πιο γνωστά σε μας, είναι το WPT που παρακολουθήσαμε στις ελληνικές τηλεοράσεις ή το World Series Of Poker (WSOP), που είναι γιορτή του πόκερ κάθε Ιούνιο/Ιούλιο στο Las Vegas. To show High Stakes Poker, που προβάλεται από το αμερικανικό δίκτυο GSN και βλέπουμε από το διαδίκτυο εδώ και πέντε σεζόν, έχει αποκτήσει φανατικό κοινό. Εκεί όπου το ελάχιστο ποντάρισμα είναι όσο ο βασικός μας μισθός και τα χρήματα που κερδίζονται σε κάθε παρτίδα, κάποιες φορές όσο μια Lamborghini Gallardo. Αυτό που αναρωτήθηκα όμως, είναι το που παίζουν πόκερ αυτοί οι αστέρες όταν δεν είναι σε κάποιο από αυτά τα show; Σίγουρα κάποιοι θα πείτε ότι παίζουν στο ίντερνετ, με όρια ακόμα και 500$/1000$ Νο Limit. Ξέρουμε ότι αρκετοί από αυτούς, ειδικά όσοι ανήκουν στην νεότερη γενιά, όντος παίζουν πολύ και στο ίντερνετ. Είναι όμως κάποιοι από τους γνωστούς παίκτες μεγάλης ηλικίας, όπως ο Doyle Brunson, o Barry Greestein και αλλά “μεγαθήρια”. Που παίζουν αυτοί; Μα φυσικά στο Las Vegas και στο θρυλικό “Big Game” του Bellagio.



Το σπίτι του Big Game στο ξενοδοχείο Bellagio

Πολλές ιστορίες έχουν ακουστεί γι αυτό, που σε κάνουν να παραμιλάς και που κάνουν το σπιτικό παιχνίδι με την παρέα σου κάθε Κυριακή βράδυ, να φαντάζει σαν πόκερ με φασόλια αντί για χρήματα. Πόσες φήμες κυκλοφορούν για δισεκατομμυριούχους που πήγαν στο συγκεκριμένο τραπέζι και έχασαν εκατομμύρια δολάρια, τραπεζίτες που πήγαν με τεράστια κεφάλαια και πανέξυπνες στρατηγικές για να τους νικήσουν (έχει γραφτεί και βιβλίο για την συγκεκριμένη ιστορία), παρτίδες που ξεπερνάνε το $1.000.000, δεκάδες ώρες και ημερόνυχτα συνεχομένου παιχνιδιού και αλλά πολλά.

Το “Big Game” στεγάζεται εδώ και χρόνια στο poker room, ή Bobby’s Room όπως είναι γνωστό, του ξενοδοχείου Bellagio και έχει πάρει το όνομα του από τον πρόεδρο και CEO της MGM/Mirage, Bobby Baldwin. Ο ίδιος ήταν και τακτικός πελάτης του συγκεκριμένου παιχνιδιού. Βέβαια δεν στεγαζόταν πάντα στο Bellagio και ούτε θα συνεχίσει απ ότι δείχνουν τα πράγματα μιας και το καινούργιο και λαμπερό Venetian προσελκύει τελευταία πολλούς από αυτούς που "έκαναν" το Big Game, αυτό που είναι σήμερα. Γιατί όμως το συγκεκριμένο poker room να αποτελεί τον χώρο για τα πιο “ακριβά” τραπέζια πόκερ στον κόσμο;

Σίγουρα κάποιοι θα πείτε ότι παίζουν ρόλο οι δημόσιες σχέσεις. Ναι είναι και αυτό, αλλά ο κύριος λόγος είναι ότι ο χώρος είναι ότι πιο όμορφο διαθέτει το Vegas. To high limit poker room είναι το μικρότερο δωμάτιο μέσα στο κυρίως poker room του Bellagio. Δυο “σεκουριτάδες” φυλλάνε την είσοδο και καθώς περιβάλεται από τζάμια, μπορεί ο καθένας να δει ποιος και τι γίνεται μέσα σε αυτό, χωρίς βέβαια να μπορεί να μπει μέσα αν δεν διαθέτει την ανάλογη ..."τσέπη". Μέσα στο Bobby’s Room βρίσκονται δύο τραπέζια, που τα περιβάλλουν αναπαυτικότατες καρέκλες, ένα bar και ένας χώρος με τέσσερις πανάκριβες πολυθρόνες, που κάθε "αρχοντικό" θα ήθελε να διαθέτει. Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan, Phil Ivey, Jennifer Harman (ναι γυναίκα είναι!), Sammy Farha, Eric Seidel, Minh Ly, Eli Elezra, Daniel Negreanu, και Barry Greenstein είναι κάποιοι από τους αστέρες που συχνάζουν εκεί. Άλλοι επαγγελματίες, όταν τυχαίνει να βρίσκονται στην πόλη για κάποιο τουρνουά, όπως το WSOP ή το WPT, ιδίως αν έχουν κάνει κάποια μεγάλη νίκη, δοκιμάζουν την τύχη τους στο συγκεκριμένο room και προσπαθούν να γίνουν κομμάτι του θρύλου. Allen Cunningham, Phil Hellmuth, Gus Hansen, Patrik Antonius είναι μερικοί από αυτούς. Αρκετοί ήταν και οι επαγγελματίες παίκτες, που προσπάθησαν να τα βάλουν με αυτούς τους θρύλους, όπως ο Brian Townsend, o oποίος στο τέλος της βραδιάς είχε λεφτά μόνο για το ταξί και ένα αεροπορικό εισιτήριο για να επιστρέψει σπίτι του...

Μυθικά ποσά στα τραπέζια του Bobby's Room

Ωραία όλα αυτά θα πείτε. Μαζεύονται επαγγελματίες και παίζουν μεταξύ τους. Ποιο το νόημα λοιπόν, ποιος ο λόγος να παίζεις πόκερ με κάποιους οι οποίοι είναι το ίδιο καλοί με σένα; Κι όμως και δεν είναι έτσι. Όλος αυτός ο μύθος που περιβάλει το "Βig Game", έχει τραβήξει τα βλέμματα φιλόδοξων και πάμπλουτων επιχειρηματιών ανά τον κόσμο που συρρέουν κατά δεκάδες κάθε χρόνο. Άλλοι πάνε για να ανταγωνιστούν σε μια άνιση μάχη αυτούς τους θρύλους και άλλοι απλά για να διασκεδάσουν και να πουν ότι έπαιξαν με τους καλυτέρους του κόσμου. Στο τέλος βέβαια και στις δυο περιπτώσεις τους μένει μόνο η ιστορία. Γιατί όμως να μπορούν να καθίσουν μόνο πάμπλουτοι επιχειρηματίες ή επαγγελματίες του είδους σε αυτά τα τραπέζια και δεν μπορεί να κάθήσει να παίξει ο απλός κοσμάκης; Εγώ, εσύ, ο παππούς μου. Και η απάντηση είναι φυσικά… τα όρια, "the limits" όπως είναι ο αγγλικός όρος που περιγράφει τα χρηματικά ποσά στο κάθε τραπέζι.

Τα όρια λοιπόν που παίζονται δεν είναι απλά μεγάλα. Το να παίζεις πόκερ με blinds ακόμα και $4.000$/$8.000 αποτελεί ανέκδοτο για τους περισσότερους από εμάς και σίγουρα αν το άκουγες για πρώτη φορά από κάποιον φίλο, θα νόμιζες πως σου κάνει πλάκα. Κι όμως δεν είναι ψέμα. Όταν υπάρχει τέτοια απήχηση και τρέλα για το πόκερ στον κόσμο, σίγουρα ανάμεσα σε αυτούς θα υπάρχουν και κάποιοι που διαθέτουν να πετάξουν ένα-δυο εκατομμυριάκια. Κάποιοι που για να νιώσουν το συναίσθημα της μπλόφας ρισκάροντας τέσσερα με πέντε μεροκάματα, πρέπει να βάλουν εκατοντάδες χιλιάδες δολάρια. Και όσο υπάρχουν αυτοί που τα διαθέτουν φυσικά θα υπάρχουν και αυτοί που θα τους τα παίρνουν, οι επαγγελματίες δηλαδή.

Τα όρια ποικίλουν ανάλογα την περίοδο και τους παίκτες που βρίσκονται εκεί. Τις φορές που δεν έχει μεγάλη κίνηση, τα όρια κυμαίνονται "χαμηλά" (ο Θεός να τα κάνει...) στα $1.500/$3.000 Limit, αλλά συχνά αυξάνονται, ειδικά όταν βρίσκονται εκεί μεγάλοι παίκτες, ή "High Rollers" όπως λέγονται, που θέλουν να παίξουν για περισσότερα. Το σύνηθες όριο για Limit poker είναι από $2.000$/$4.000 μέχρι και $4.000$/$8.000 σε κάποιες περιπτώσεις, με ελάχιστο buy-in τα $100.000.

Όσον αφορά τα Νo Limit παιχνίδια, τα όρια αρχίζουν από $400$/$800 και φτάνουν σε κάποιες περιπτώσεις μέχρι και $2.000$/$4.000! Λόγω των τεράστιων ποσών που παίζονται, οι παίκτες από μόνοι τους βάζουν όριο ("cap") τις $200.000 ανά παίκτη. Πράγμα που σημαίνει πως κανένας παίκτης δεν μπορεί να βάλει στο pot (το σύνολο των πονταρισμένων σε κάθε παρτίδα), περισσότερα από $200.000 και αυτό το κάνουν για να κρατήσουν το παιχνίδι υπό έλεγχο και να μην... ξεφύγει πολύ! Άλλες φορές το παιχνίδι είναι τελείως ελεύθερο και τα ποσά που παίζονται είναι μυθικά, αλλά αυτό είναι αρκετά σπάνιο. Είναι αρκετά φυσικό για κάποιον παίκτη να χάσει ή να κερδίσει ένα εκατομύριο σε μια επίσκεψη (ένα session) στο Bobby’s room. Το ρεκόρ για το μεγαλύτερο pot που έχει κερδίθει στο "Big Game" (και όχι μόνο), το έχει η Jennifer Harman (ναι είπαμε, γυναίκα είναι) και ανερχόταν στα εξωφρενικό ποσό των $2.000.000!

Οι πλουσιότεροι επισκέπτες του Λας Βέγκας παίζουν στο Big Game

Οι παραλλαγές πόκερ που παίζονται είναι πολλές και ποικίλες. Από τα πιο γνωστά Τexas Hold’em (limit, no limit και pot limit), Pot Limit Omaha, Omaha 8 (ή Hi/Lo όπως το ξέρουν οι περισσότεροι), Seven Card Draw, Seven Card Stud, Razz, μέχρι και τα πιο εξεζητημένα 2-7 Triple Draw, No Limit 2-7 και A-5 Triple Draw. Κάποιες μέρες που το παιχνίδι αρχίζει “χαμηλά” χαλαρώνουν με Chinese πόκερ. Τα τραπέζια είναι 8 ατόμων και συνήθως είναι μεικτά, που σημαίνει ότι η παραλλαγή του πόκερ που παίζεται, αλλάζει κάθε 8 παρτίδες, σύμφωνα πάντα με κάποια προκαθορισμένη σειρά. Σπάνια παίζονται μόνο 2-3 είδη σε ένα τραπέζι και αυτό συμβαίνει όταν κάποιος “επώνυμος” είναι στην πόλη, όπου το παιχνίδι γίνεται No Limit/Pot Limit και την τιμητική τους έχoυν το Hold’em και το Omaha. Ο λόγος που τα παιχνίδια είναι μεικτά είναι γιατί κάθε παίχτης που συμμετέχει είναι πολύ καλός σε κάποιο συγκεκριμένο είδος και όχι τόσο καλός σε κάποιο άλλο κι έτσι το παιχνίδι γίνεται πιο δίκαιο για όλους. Υπάρχουν και κάποιοι που δηλώνουν ότι δεν τους ενοχλεί καθόλου αυτό, όπως ο Sam Farha που έχει πει πως "Όλα (τα είδη) είναι πόκερ για μένα".

Όπως προανέφερα, πολλοί είναι εκείνοι οι οποίοι θέλουν να πάνε και να παίξουν στο "Big Game", αλλά λίγοι έχουν την οικονομική άνεση να το κάνουν. Σίγουρα κάποιοι επιχειρηματίες πήγαν και κατέφεραν να βγουν κερδισμένοι ένα βράδυ αλλά κάποια στιγμή γύρισαν και τα έχασαν όλα, είτε το επόμενο βράδυ είτε στο επόμενο ταξίδι τους στο Vegas. Όμως ένας είναι αυτός που κατάφερε να φέρει τους θαμώνες του "Big Game" στα όρια τους. Ο ‘τραπεζίτης’, όπως είναι γνωστός και στον ευρύτερο κόσμο μέσα από το βιβλίο του Michael Craig, "The Professor, The Banker, and the Suicide King: Inside The Richest Poker Game Of All Time" έκανε κάτι μοναδικό. Σκαρφιζόμενος μια πολύ έξυπνη στρατηγική κατάφερε και έκανε τους επαγγελματίες να παραβιάσουν τον μεγαλύτερο τους κανόνα: "Μη παίζεις σε όρια τα οποία δεν αντέχει το κεφάλαιο σου". Ο τραπεζίτης ονόματι Andy Beal είναι ένας δισεκατομμυριούχος που έκανε περιουσία από τα τραπεζικά και από την αγοραπωλησία ακινήτων (real estate). Όταν βρέθηκε στο Vegas για κάτι δουλείες δεν έχασε την ευκαιρία στον ελεύθερο χρόνο του να επισκευθεί και το Bellagio, όπου είναι το στέκι του “Big Game”. Εκεί βρήκε να κάθονται οι Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese, John Hennigan, Jennifer Harman, Chau Giang, και Todd Brunson. Κερδίζοντας 100.000$ εκείνη την βραδιά είπε πως την επόμενη φορά που θα επιστρέψει, θέλει να παίξει ένας-προς-έναν (heads-up) με όποιον μπορεί να κάτσει και να τον αντιμετωπίσει σε όρια 10.000$/20.000$. Όρια που ακόμα και γι αυτά τα μεγαθήρια είναι πολύ μεγάλα. Η μονομαχία κράτησε 3 χρόνια και πολλά παράδοξα συνέβησαν. Όλα αυτά μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε στο εν λόγω βιβλίο, στο οποίο και θα αναφερθούμε εκτενέστερα στο επόμενο άρθρο.

Όλα αυτά κάποιους ίσως τους σοκάρουν, σε άλλους ίσως φανούν προκλητικά. Υπερβολικά πάντως φαίνονται σε όλους. Γι αυτούς όμως αποτελεί καθημερινότητα και κομμάτι της ζωής τους. Όπως είχε πει και ο John Hennigan μετά την απώλεια ενός εκατομμυρίου δολαρίων σε μια βραδιά. “Well, tomorrow's another day” (μετ. «Ε λοιπόν, αύριο είναι μια διαφορετική μέρα»).