Οptimal bluff strategy

Bluffing and bluff strategy is one of the hardest but most fundamental parts of poker. Without a doubt, if you do not bluff in poker, there is no way you can be a successful poker player. That being said, bluffing is no small task, as it requires good poker sense, timing and guts to pull it off. It can be frightening, scary and embarrassing when you are caught, but equally exciting and rewarding when you get away with it.

Bluffing in Limit Texas Hold'em

In most Texas Hold'em games played around the casinos, structured (limit poker) is the most common type of poker played. Unlike no limit, where you can shove your stack all-in and put a man to his money, in limit games, your bluffs will only be limited to a single bet or raise more often than not. Because of this limited betting, bluffing randomly can get you in trouble, as your opponents will often be willing to call down a single extra bet (especially in low limit games). As cool as it might sound to tell yourself that you're going to bluff everyone out of the next hand no matter what, it's not going to work the majority of the time. Why? Because bluffing, is an art form.

Position - The Weapon of Choice for Bluffing

If you have studied texas hold'em or poker in general, you'll know that position relative to the button is a big factor in the game. If you don't know what position is, I highly recommend you read the link above or our texas hold'em guide as a primer. Position is a topic too important a topic to ignore, as it goes hand in hand with bluffing and aggression. Thus, adding a bluffing game on top of your position game is absolutely critical.

Continuing, position is important because bluffing will usually take place when you are close to the button or last to act. Why? Because you are in the advantageous situation to see all the action before the action is on you.

Example: You are on the button in a 3/6 game. There are three players on the flop, including yourself. The flop comes [ A 9 2 ]. The first player checks, then the second player checks as well. Being last to act, you decide that since your opponents checked before you, you might be able to scoop up the pot. You bet $3 and happily see that both your opponents fold and you take down the pot.

This is a classic example of using your position to take down a pot. Because you were able to see your opponents act before you, this gave you enough information so that you decided to bluff and win this pot. So, if the action is checked to you, depending on how many players are in the pot and how loose the game is, you will often win the hand outright then and there without any confrontation.

Bluff EV - Can Math Solve the Bluffing Equation?

Let's use an example where you are playing in a $3/6 limit hold'em game with four callers on the flop: small and big blind, one limper and yourself. That makes it a $12 pot. The blinds and limper check to you. Should you try and steal this pot? Let's do the math.

If you bet out, it involves risking a small bet of $3 to try and bluff the pot. If you win, you will be up $12. This means the pot is laying you 12:3 odds, or 4:1 odds. If you aren't familiar with odds, please visit our page on how to calculate poker odds. Because the pot is giving 4:1 odds, this means that you must win this pot 1 out of 5 times in order to break even with your bet - or 20% of the time.

To figure out whether or not it will be profitable to bluff in your position, you combine this little bit of math against your own poker skills and intuition to ask yourself this: If I bluff now, will I win this pot more than 20% of the time? If the answer is yes, then you want to bet at this pot! If the answer is no, then it'll be a losing long-term proposition for you. This is why careful observation and taking notes of your opponents is crucial. Knowing when a play is profitable and when it isn't, is how you make money with bluffs.

The Semi-Failed Bluff - To Continue or Not?

So, lets say 1 out of 5 times you do take the pot down right then, meaning that it's a break even play. Let's say that on the times that you don't win immediately, your opponents simply call and you're looking at a turn card. Say that everyone still in the hand checks to you - should you bet again? Well, it certainly depends now doesn't it!

The hardest part about bluffing is knowing when to really dial up the aggression and when to slam your foot on the brakes. Trying to push over an opponent with a monster hand or standing down to an opponent with a weak hand are the two worst mistakes to make while bluffing, because they'll cost you the most money. This is why you want to try and analyze exactly what your opponents may be holding that they're still in the hand with you.

Look at what is on the board and try to figure out what hand your opponents would call you with. Are they loose enough to call that inside straight draw or call with bottom pair? Are they predictable players that only call top pair? But most important, are they weak enough to call the flop and fold the turn? The mistake that most aggressive players make is they don't try to understand their opponents; they just want to bully them. Your decision to continue should be a smart one: keep bullying if you have a good chance, but otherwise, give up.

The Actual Failed Bluff

Ok. There was only one opponent left on the river. You were sure they were going to fold, so you bet it out. They called with bottom pair and you have King high. You're sick to your stomach and embarrassed to boot. The first thing that goes through your head at this moment is: how on Earth did they call that?

Reality check: Don't do the stupid thing and try to convince yourself that your opponent made a mistake. While your opponent might have made a bad call, it was a worse move for you to try to bluff out a calling station! It's a rule of thumb that you can't push out a calling station, because they simply don't know any better.

Practice Makes Perfect!

While this article isn't an entire primer on all the different angles on bluffing, the best lesson you can have on how to properly bluff is to simply go out and try it yourself. Everyone has to learn the hard way eventually, no matter how much you read on strategies. The key is to learn from your mistakes on how aggressive you can be and then tone it down to match the style of the table. Most important though, is to actually try and bluff. Being nervous or scared is a very natural thing and getting over that emotional block is an important part of controlling your nerves and mindset to make good plays. Keep at it and you'll be doing well in no time!